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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Chicago Bears
4th & 1 at the 33
Chicago Bears 17 – Cleveland Browns 7
What Actually Happened
(15:00) 1-J.Fields sacked at CLE 33 for 0 yards (29-C.Mitchell).
The Three Options
GO
+1.99 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.81 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 33, worth -1.59 EP
KICK
+0.56 EP
- 68% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
- 32% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 43, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT
-0.11 EP
- Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
