Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 79

Chicago Bears 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

(10:30) 16-T.Gill punts 34 yards to CLE 45, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-39-J.Blackwell.

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.58 EP
54% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 79, worth -4.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model