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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 23

Chicago Bears 14 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(7:11) 8-C.Santos 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.85 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 23, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 33, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model