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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 68

Cleveland Browns 7 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(11:56) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to CHI 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 15-T.Taylor pushed ob at CHI 30 for 8 yards (42-T.Fields).

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.84 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 68, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 26, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model