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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 14 at the 79

Chicago Bears 7 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(14:09) 16-T.Gill punts 45 yards to CLE 34, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-J.Proche to CLE 35 for 1 yard (31-Ja.Jones). PENALTY on CHI-43-D.Gates, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 35.

The Three Options

GO -2.80 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 79, worth -4.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 36, worth -2.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model