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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 37

Chicago Bears 7 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(:04) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep right INTERCEPTED by 6-J.Owusu-Koramoah (0-G.Newsome) [99-Z.Smith] at CLE -4. Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
What Happened
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +2.14 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 37, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 46, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.59 EP