4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 79

Cleveland Browns 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(:45) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to CHI 40, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.25 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 79, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 36, worth -2.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model