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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 30

Baltimore Ravens 23 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(:30) 35-G.Edwards up the middle to JAX 25 for 5 yards (33-D.Lloyd).

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
What Happened
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +1.20 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.79 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 40, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.47 EP