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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 38

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Baltimore Ravens 23

What Actually Happened

(4:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles left end ran ob at BAL 25 for 13 yards (6-P.Queen).

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.19 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 38, worth -1.56 EP
KICK +0.16 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 47, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model