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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 67

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(13:41) 9-L.Cooke punts 43 yards to BAL 24, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 16-T.Wallace.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 67, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 25, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP