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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Baltimore Ravens
4th & 12 at the 43
Baltimore Ravens 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7
What Actually Happened
(4:22) 11-J.Stout punts 33 yards to JAX 10, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.
The Three Options
GO
-0.32 EP
Model's Pick
-
32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.85 EP
- 68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 43, worth -2.29 EP
KICK
-0.89 EP
- 42% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
- 58% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT
-0.40 EP
What Happened
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.40 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
