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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 56

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(12:19) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to BAL 11, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 16-T.Wallace.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.24 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 56, worth -2.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 17, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model