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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 13 at the 65

Tennessee Titans 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(5:09) 13-T.Zentner punts 53 yards to MIA 12, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.43 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 65, worth -3.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 23, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model