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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 55

Miami Dolphins 27 – Tennessee Titans 28

What Actually Happened

(:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 42 for -3 yards (58-H.Landry).

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +0.71 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 55, worth -0.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model