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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 67

Miami Dolphins 27 – Tennessee Titans 21

What Actually Happened

(2:24) 16-J.Bailey punts 45 yards to TEN 22, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 33-E.Garror to TEN 36 for 14 yards (20-J.Bethel).

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.26 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 67, worth -2.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 25, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP