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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 15 at the 58

Miami Dolphins 13 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(6:16) 16-J.Bailey punts 47 yards to TEN 11, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 33-E.Garror MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by MIA-22-E.Campbell at TEN 7.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.63 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 58, worth -3.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 18, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model