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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 13 at the 13

Miami Dolphins 10 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(12:41) 7-J.Sanders 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey. PENALTY on MIA-44-B.Ferguson, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.87 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 13, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 23, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model