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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 5

Tennessee Titans 10 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(:12) 6-N.Folk 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-13-T.Zentner.

The Three Options

GO +2.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.07 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 5, worth +0.27 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP