4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 85

Miami Dolphins 10 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(6:00) 16-J.Bailey punts 50 yards to TEN 35, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 33-E.Garror.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.80 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 85, worth -4.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.02 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 43, worth -2.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model