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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 59

Tennessee Titans 10 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(6:51) 13-T.Zentner punts 50 yards to MIA 9, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.60 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 59, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 18, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model