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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 2

Miami Dolphins 7 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(9:38) 7-J.Sanders 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +3.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.12 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 2, worth +0.62 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.54 EP