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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 76

Tennessee Titans 7 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(1:02) 13-T.Zentner punts 45 yards to MIA 31, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.13 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 76, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 34, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model