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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 26

Miami Dolphins 7 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 7-J.Sanders 44 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-D.Autry), Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey, RECOVERED by TEN-37-A.Hooker at TEN 10. 37-A.Hooker to TEN 21 for 11 yards (94-C.Wilkins).

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.62 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 36, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model