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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 17 at the 21

Seattle Seahawks 7 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 5-J.Myers 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.80 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model