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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 73

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(8:13) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 52 yards to SEA 21, Center-46-T.Pepper. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 29 for 8 yards (89-C.Woerner, 10-R.Bell).

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.00 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 73, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 31, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model