Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 13 at the 48

Seattle Seahawks 16 – San Francisco 49ers 28

What Actually Happened

(3:24) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep middle intended for 14-D.Metcalf INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Warner (92-C.Young) at SF 16. 54-F.Warner to SF 13 for -3 yards. Lateral to 57-D.Greenlaw to SF 29 for 16 yards (11-J.Smith-Njigba). Penalty on SF-2-D.Lenoir, Disqualification, offsetting. Penalty on SEA-14-D.Metcalf, Disqualification, offsetting.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP

What Happened

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.18 EP
73% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 48, worth -1.97 EP

KICK -0.55 EP

36% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
64% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model