Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 71

Seattle Seahawks 10 – San Francisco 49ers 14

(6:09) 4-M.Dickson punts 62 yards to SF 9, Center-41-C.Stoll. 10-R.Bell to SF 25 for 16 yards (59-J.Rhattigan).

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.89 EP
69% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model