4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 12 at the 59

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(10:11) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to SEA 13, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.05 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 59, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 18, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model