Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 13 at the 83

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

(5:59) 14-R.Wright punts 59 yards to LV 24, Center-42-A.DePaola. 3-D.Carter ran ob at LV 34 for 10 yards (25-Th.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -3.16 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.86 EP
68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 83, worth -5.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model