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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 65

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(9:23) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to MIN 5, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 4-B.Powell to MIN 30 for 25 yards (45-J.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.00 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 65, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 23, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model