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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 83

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(12:21) 6-A.Cole punts 83 yards to end zone, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.87 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 83, worth -4.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 41, worth -1.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model