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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 13 at the 60

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(13:21) 14-R.Wright punts 49 yards to LV 11, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 3-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.82 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 60, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 19, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model