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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 67

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(1:02) 6-A.Cole punts 45 yards to MIN 22, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 4-B.Powell to MIN 32 for 10 yards (34-B.Bolden).

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.05 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 67, worth -3.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 25, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model