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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 56

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(10:40) 4-A.O'Connell up the middle to LV 46 for 2 yards (97-H.Phillips).

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.66 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 56, worth -2.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 17, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model