Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 15 at the 78

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

(12:01) 6-A.Cole punts 57 yards to MIN 21, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 4-B.Powell to MIN 21 for no gain (19-D.Turner).

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.15 EP
72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 78, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model