Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 14 at the 79

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Baltimore Ravens 0

(2:06) 42-E.Evans punts 59 yards to BAL 20, Center-47-A.Ward. 13-D.Duvernay pushed ob at BAL 34 for 14 yards (18-B.Skowronek).

The Three Options

GO -2.81 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.37 EP
70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 79, worth -4.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model