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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 55

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(4:07) 11-J.Stout punts 47 yards to LA 8, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.17 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 55, worth -2.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 16, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model