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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 9

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(5:37) 8-L.Havrisik 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.65 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 9, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model