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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 18

Los Angeles Rams 28 – Baltimore Ravens 31

What Actually Happened

(:11) 8-L.Havrisik 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +2.50 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 18, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +2.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.03 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 28, worth +0.01 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model