4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 15

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Los Angeles Rams 22

What Actually Happened

(11:21) 9-J.Tucker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +2.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.05 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 15, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP