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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 33

Los Angeles Rams 17 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(1:50) 8-L.Havrisik 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.82 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 33, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 43, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model