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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 65

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(11:47) 11-J.Stout punts 45 yards to LA 20, Center-69-T.Ott. 81-A.Trammell to LA 24 for 4 yards (53-D.Phillips).

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.37 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 65, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 23, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP