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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 12 at the 20

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(1:19) 7-M.Gay 38 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.33 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 20, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model