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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 17

Cincinnati Bengals 31 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 2-E.McPherson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.10 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 17, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 27, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model