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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 55

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(8:49) 8-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to CIN 8, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.33 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 55, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP