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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 71

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 28

What Actually Happened

(1:24) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to CIN 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 15-C.Jones to CIN 23 for 5 yards (41-G.Stuard).

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.51 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 71, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 29, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model