Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 60

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Indianapolis Colts 14

(:24) 10-B.Robbins punts 19 yards to IND 41, Center-48-C.Adomitis, downed by CIN-32-T.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.34 EP
65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 60, worth -1.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model