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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 2

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 10-G.Minshew pass short right to 81-M.Alie-Cox for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.35 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 2, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model