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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 53

New York Giants 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:00) 6-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to GB 13, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 11-J.Reed to GB 16 for 3 yards (47-C.Brown). PENALTY on GB-36-A.Johnson, Illegal Blindside Block, 6 yards, enforced at GB 13.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.25 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -1.58 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model