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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 18

New York Giants 21 – Green Bay Packers 22

What Actually Happened

(:02) 46-R.Bullock 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +1.57 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 18, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.02 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model